August marks several national days across Southeast Asia, as Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines commemorate the anniversaries of their sovereignty and independence. Strength in unity – emanated to galvanise populations amid pandemic recoveries and a turbulent geopolitical landscape – is a common theme accompanying this year's celebrations. These unifying rallying calls have also become a pertinent goal for Southeast Asia’s nations, especially considering the emerging need to safeguard sovereignty in a sea of rising geopolitical tensions.
This month, ‘From the Hill’ explores Southeast Asia’s current responses to ongoing international conflicts and observes the region’s readiness to demonstrate a cohesive, regional stance on these events.
Feature Topic
Southeast Asia grapples with divided reactions to ongoing geopolitical tensions
Southeast Asia has an extensive history of neutrality, as illustrated by the region’s prior participation in non-alignment movements. In recent times, however, countries in the region are deviating from these norms and taking clearer stances on geopolitical issues – highlighted by the wide variety of responses towards the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
However, any neutral tone expressed in the conflict in far-flung regions starkly contrasted with the responses to recent tensions closer to home – with Singapore somewhat bucking the trend, having voiced strong concerns about the tensions brewing in both Asia and Europe. China’s response to the visit of United States Speaker of Congress Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan involved the former reiterating its ongoing threats and escalating military presence in the South China Sea. For countries in Southeast Asia that hold their own territorial stake in the disputed waters, this move could potentially exacerbate ongoing maritime disputes and security concerns, if not adversely impact existing or future socio-economic ties with the larger powers.
These shifting regional tides and geopolitical upheavals signal a need to reinvent the non-interference policy wheel. A balanced and united regional posture could exhibit a region’s strength in facing these uncertainties. However, Southeast Asia now faces the challenge of evaluating the myriad effects that these tensions have on the region and navigating the differing stances upheld by its member countries.
For instance, the United States and China are massively relied upon by Southeast Asia for varying economic needs – foreign direct investments (FDI) from the former and vast trade imports from the latter. However, while these superpowers joust for geopolitical influence over Southeast Asia, the region’s dual reliance on them has sprouted different approaches to their rising tensions.
Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia expressed outward support as they remain consistent in their cooperation and bilateral pledges with China. Meanwhile, other member countries such as Singapore and Vietnam opted for a softer approach that calls for restraint in provocative actions without outrightly condemning any party.
Manoeuvring its way through a superpower tussle would require Southeast Asia to be vigilant of the diverse impacts and responses that derive from these incidents. Providing a united stand before international audiences is easier said than done; this exposes the limits of the regional political alliance in interfering with the sovereignty of member nations, even despite instances of exclusions of member nations during ASEAN dialogues (even then, done as a technicality depending on which government is considered valid).
It remains to be seen how cohesive Southeast Asia can be in the foreseeable future when formulating a more assertive regional voice on geopolitical issues. However, as the likelihood of continued peacetime is under question, the clock may be ticking. Till then, the member nations are doing what they can to boost their resilience independently.
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